Styrene: The magic reappears, easily breaking through the 10,000 yuan barrier

A list of the ups and downs of the styrene industry chain

Data source: Jinlianchuang (unit: yuan/ton)

Since September, the magic of styrene has reappeared, and the rally has been strong. It is not difficult to find from the above table that it is the consistency of the top-down industrial chain. Affected by the news of Russia and Saudi Arabia's extension of production cuts, international crude oil has continued to rise sharply, superimposed on domestic real estate and other multiple macro-favorable policies. Market sentiment has rapidly recovered, commodity futures markets have generally pulled up, and styrene has risen sharply under the support of high costs and low inventories. On September 13, East China styrene spot talks easily broke through the 10,000 yuan integer mark. On the night of September 14, the news of short-stop of individual large devices was fermented. EB's main force 2310 once again increased its position sharply, reaching a maximum of 9954, continuing to refresh the high point in the past 14 months.

The cost side and styrene support each other strongly

Data Source: Jinlianchuang

In the third quarter, according to Jinlianchuang data, the correlation coefficient between the closing price of pure benzene and styrene in East China was as high as 0.98, which can be said that the cost side and styrene are strongly supported by each other.

Since September, Sinopec Group has raised the listing price of pure benzene 5 times in less than half a month, with a cumulative increase of 1050 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton, and the domestic pure benzene market has soared one after another. Crude oil is strong, energy and chemical commodities are generally supported, aromatic hydrocarbon products are generally strong, and the main downstream styrene is rapidly rising, driving up the sentiment in the pure benzene market. From the perspective of supply and demand, with the negative growth of new downstream devices and the recovery of most downstream operating rates, the demand side is supported strongly. Port pure benzene has maintained a low level in nearly five years. Under the tight supply and demand pattern, the market price has continuously broken through the high point of the year. As of the close of September 13, pure benzene in East China rose to around 8950 yuan/ton.

Long-term low inventory and low start-up help significantly

Data Source: Jinlianchuang

From the perspective of the trend of styrene start-up, before September, the styrene industry was affected by many factors such as planned centralized maintenance, unplanned parking, delayed restart of individual large installations, and delayed commissioning of new installations. It experienced a long period of low consolidation. From late May to August, the average start-up rate of the industry was less than 75%, and the inventory of production enterprises remained at a low level for a long time.

Although entering September, styrene plant maintenance has decreased significantly, and the industry's operating rate has shown a certain recovery trend. Before the deadline, Jinlianchuang statistics show that the average daily operating rate of styrene has increased to around 78% since September, but it still failed to reverse the trend of dewarehousing in the main port of East China. As of September 13, Jinlianchuang statistics show that the latest total inventory of Jiangsu's styrene mainstream tank area is 37,600 tons, continuing to refresh the new low this year.