After plunging 1700 yuan, styrene oversold rebounded! The US dollar and the RMB rose, and ABS PP rose by up to 200 yuan! Is the market going red or a flash in the pan?
After the international oil price rose, it closed down
Last Friday, Brexit released a positive signal to boost market confidence, but China's economic growth slowed, U.S. crude oil inventories rose for five consecutive weeks, and international oil prices fell after rising.
It can be seen from the price chart of the WTI and other categories in the search market-crude oil section: international oil prices both fell.
The latest international crude oil price trend is: WTI November 2019 futures fell by $0.15 per barrel at $53.78; Brent December 2019 futures fell by $0.49 per barrel at $59.42. China SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 fell 3.6 to 444.9 yuan/barrel.
It appears that crude oil is also being "crushed" by "growing inventories".
However, there are also "lucky gains" in the materials market taking advantage of the short-term positive signs of Brexit.
ABS PS upstream raw material styrene oversold rebound
From the average price chart of ABS PS upstream styrene market in the past January, it can be seen that the price of styrene has risen in the past two days with the purchase of rigid demand orders and the demand for filling vacancies.
Looking back at the styrene market in recent January, due to the large supply of spot goods, the continued rise in inventory in the later stage and the weak downstream demand, the offer price of styrene continued to fall, from 9,400 yuan/ton on September 6, to 7,720 yuan/ton on October 17, and then bottomed out to 7,800 yuan/ton on October 18. Equivalent to that, after the styrene fell by nearly 1,700 yuan in recent January, the oversold rebound!
The rebound of styrene also drove both the US dollar and the RMB higher, and its raw material pure benzene also rebounded.
The price of the upstream monomer determines the cost of the material in our hands, and the cost determines the price of the material. Therefore, the increase in styrene has also given many material friends confidence.
ABS Market Analysis
The current domestic ABS market is not well traded, and prices continue to fall. Some brands rise or fall by 50-120 yuan/ton on a daily basis.
Influencing factors
ABS unit dynamics
ABS Upstream Dynamics
① Styrene: Last Friday, the styrene market oversold and rebounded. Rigid demand for small-order purchases and fill-in demand drove up prices. At present, downstream inventories remain low. However, this week, the arrival of styrene is concentrated. The market is expected to arrive in November more than in October. Coupled with the expectation of large-scale refining and production at the end of the year, the rebound resistance is relatively large. It is expected that today's styrene market will be dominated by narrow-range finishing.
② Butadiene: Last Friday, the butadiene market was mainly sorted out, and the prices of some manufacturers were slightly adjusted. The market offers did not change much. Downstream rigid demand inquiries were the main ones, and procurement was still cautious. It is expected that today's butadiene market may be sorted out and wait and see.
③ Acrylonitrile: Last Friday, the cash market speculation in the acrylonitrile market was temporarily controlled, but the bearish atmosphere in the market still exists, and the downstream buying enthusiasm is still not high. The market is waiting to see the further movement of manufacturers. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be sorted out today.
Outlook Forecast
At present, the domestic ABS market is sluggish, the upstream three materials are insufficient to support the cost side, and some low-priced sources appear in the market, which drives down the transaction price. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the industry mentality is bearish.
It is expected that the ABS market may operate weakly and stably in the near future. It is recommended to pay more attention to the cost side and further changes in supply and demand.
PS Market Analysis
The current domestic PS market has declined slightly.
Influencing factors
PS unit dynamics
PS Upstream Dynamics
Last Friday, the styrene market oversold rebound, rigid demand for small orders and fill demand led to price increases, the current downstream inventory remains low, but this week the arrival of styrene is concentrated, the market is expected to arrive in November more than in October, coupled with the large-scale refining and production expectations at the end of the year, resulting in a large rebound resistance. It is expected that today's styrene market may be dominated by narrow finishing.
Outlook Forecast
The current PS market has stabilized, the decline has narrowed, the spot of styrene has stopped falling, and the replenishment demand of small and medium-sized traders and downstream factories is concentrated. The market inquiry and transaction situation has improved compared with yesterday, but the merchants are mainly digesting inventory at a low level, and the overall focus of negotiation is not high.
It is expected that the PS market may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the external news and further changes in the supply and demand side of the field.
PP Market Analysis
The current domestic PP market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with some brands rising or falling by 50-200 yuan/ton per day.
Influencing factors
PP plant dynamics
PP Upstream Dynamics
Last Friday, the propylene market continued to operate weakly. Suppliers were more enthusiastic in shipping, and there was more room for profit in actual orders. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the propylene market will continue to operate weakly today.
Outlook Forecast
The current domestic PP market futures fluctuate, the lower upstream propylene price has insufficient support for the cost side, and the downstream demand has not improved. The market mentality is more bearish, merchants sell at a profit, and more wait-and-see mentality. The actual transaction is average.
It is expected that the PP market may be narrowed in the near future. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to on-exchange futures and further changes in supply and demand.
PP Powder Market Analysis
The current domestic PP powder market price has declined in a narrow range.
Influencing factors
Upstream dynamics of PP powder
Last Friday, the propylene market continued to operate weakly. Suppliers were more enthusiastic in shipping, and there was more room for profit in actual orders. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the propylene market will continue to operate weakly today.
Outlook Forecast
The current PP powder market is weak, PP futures are running convulsively, the market mentality is not good, and transaction negotiations are the main ones. The downstream enthusiasm for getting goods is not high, and the wait-and-see mood is renewed. The overall market transaction is average.
The short-term PP powder market is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to further changes in futures and costs.
PE market analysis
At present, the prices of most brands in the domestic PE market have fallen, and some brands have risen or fallen by 50-150 yuan/ton on a daily basis.
Influencing factors
PE upstream dynamics
On the 18th, the price of ethylene in the Asian market fell. CFR Northeast Asia quoted $708-714/ton, down $30/ton, and CFR South East Asia quoted $768-774/ton, down $20/ton.
Outlook Forecast
The current PE market price fell slightly, linear futures slightly callback, merchants wait-and-see attitude of using multiple competitive products at the same time, downstream to maintain rigid demand procurement, low-cost replenishment.
It is expected that the short-term PE market will fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to further changes in futures and supply and demand.
PVC Market Analysis
The current PVC market price is running weakly.
Influencing factors
Upstream dynamics of PVC
On the 18th, the price of ethylene in the Asian market fell. CFR Northeast Asia quoted $708-714/ton, down $30/ton, and CFR South East Asia quoted $768-774/ton, down $20/ton.
Outlook Forecast
At present, the quotations of upstream producers in the domestic PVC market have been partially reduced, the market offer continues to be weak, the upstream supply side is not under great pressure, the cash market inventory is still in the stage of destocking, and the end point procurement demand is expected to be better.
It is expected that the short-term PVC market may be organized and operated, and it is recommended to pay more attention to further changes in the supply and demand side of the field.
EVA Market Analysis
The current EVA market trend is temporarily stable.
Influencing factors
EVA device dynamics
EVA Upstream Dynamics
On the 18th, the price of ethylene in the Asian market fell. CFR Northeast Asia quoted $708-714/ton, down $30/ton, and CFR South East Asia quoted $768-774/ton, down $20/ton.
Outlook Forecast
At present, the cost support of the EVA market is limited, the inventory of manufacturers is low, the circulation of goods is blocked, the merchant has limited shipments, the downstream demand is acceptable, and the actual order transaction has increased.
It is expected that the short-term EVA market may be stable, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to further changes in the supply and demand side.
